How are Market Rates calculated?

Every rate in Market Rates comes from real bids on Cargado postings over the last 12 weeks: what carriers bid, and the counteroffers brokers made back to them. It is not what a broker paid, not a survey, and not data bought from a third party. Here is how we turn those bids into the Low, Mid and High range you see in the platform.

In short

• We use bids and counteroffers from the last 12 weeks on the same lane.
• Low, Mid and High are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of those bids.
• We show a rate only when there are at least 10 bids from at least 3 different carriers and the margin of error is 30% or less.
• When your lane has few bids, we fill in with similar lanes or a wider area.
• Every rate is recalculated each week.

Step 1: We collect bids and counteroffers

Every time a carrier bids on a Cargado posting, or a broker counters that bid, the amount goes into the calculation. We count:

• Every posting type: loads, lanes, potential loads and potential lanes. That is why posting a potential lane also helps your lane get a rate.
• Every bid, however it ended: accepted, rejected and still open. A rejected bid still tells you what the market asks on that lane.
• Counteroffers: when a broker counters a carrier's bid, that amount counts as a data point too. The range reflects what gets negotiated on the lane, not just opening bids.

The figure we use is the total amount of the bid or counteroffer for the whole route, origin to destination. To see what that total includes, read Does the market rate include fuel?

Step 2: We group bids by lane

Each rate is calculated for a lane, and a lane is defined by:

• the market your origin is in and the market your destination is in,
• the border crossing, if the lane crosses the border,
• the trailer type, and
• the route type: for example, whether the trip ends at the crossing or continues into the other country.

Every address you look up is placed in a market. A market groups a main city with the nearby cities and industrial areas that price alike. Calculating by market instead of by city puts more bids behind each lane and gives steadier rates. To see which areas are included, click View market boundaries on the result.

Step 3: We calculate the range

From the last 12 weeks of bids on your lane, we calculate three percentiles:

• Low (p25): a quarter of the bids are at or below this value.
• Mid (p50, the median): half the bids are above it and half below.
• High (p75): a quarter of the bids are at or above this value.

We use percentiles rather than an average because one very high or very low bid barely moves the median. Before calculating, we remove bids that aren't credible, such as an amount that doesn't fit the lane's distance and is almost always a typo.

All 12 weeks count equally. Each week we recalculate everything with the most recent 12 weeks.

We calculate in U.S. dollars. Bids in pesos or Canadian dollars are converted at that week's exchange rate. If you look up a rate in MXN or CAD, we convert the result the same way.

Step 4: We check there is enough data

We don't show a number we can't back up. A lane gets a rate only when it meets all three conditions:

1. At least 10 bids in the last 12 weeks.
2. From at least 3 different carriers.
3. A margin of error of 30% or less around the median.

We require several carriers because one carrier doesn't represent the market: it may bid low because it already has a backhaul, or high because its equipment is specialized. If your lane doesn't meet the conditions, you see We don't have enough data on this lane. Read Why is there no market rate for my lane?

Step 5: If your lane has few bids, we look at similar lanes

When your lane doesn't have enough bids of its own, we look for a reference in this order:

1. Your lane's own bids. Always the first choice.
2. Neighboring lanes. We add bids from lanes between nearby markets that price alike, adjusted to your lane's distance.
3. An estimate by legs. We build the rate from data on each leg of the trip, for example origin to crossing and crossing to destination, using bids from the lanes that share those legs.
4. A wider area. If data is still short, we widen to the extended market (your market plus the ones around it) and, if needed, to the region. We widen the destination first, then the origin.

Every rate we show meets the conditions in step 4. For an estimate by legs, each leg needs at least 3 carriers and the combined data must equal at least 10 bids. When we use an extended market, the lane header shows (extended market) after the market name. Today the platform doesn't say whether a rate comes from neighboring lanes or an estimate by legs, so check the confidence label to see how far to trust it.

Step 6: We measure the margin of error and confidence

The margin of error tells you how far the market's true median could be from the median we show, with 95% confidence. It depends on how many bids there are and how spread out they are: more bids, and bids closer together, give a smaller margin.

For example, if Mid is $2,890 and the margin of error is 13% ($375), the true median is very likely between $2,515 and $3,265.

The confidence label comes straight from that margin:

• Strong Confidence: a margin of error of about 10% or less.
• Medium Confidence: about 10% to 20%.
• Lower Confidence: about 20% to 30%. Above 30% we don't show a rate.

Hover over the label to see the margin of error for your lookup.

Step 7: We update every week

We recalculate every rate once a week, at the close of each market week, which runs Tuesday through Monday. The History: Trailing 12 weeks chart shows one point per week. Each point is that week's calculation with its own 12 weeks of bids, so two neighboring points share 11 weeks of data and the line moves gradually.

A lookup you already ran keeps the result it had at that moment. To see this week's rate, run the lookup again.

What we don't do

• We don't use paid rates or surveys: only bids and counteroffers on Cargado postings.
• We don't buy third-party data.
• We don't split by commodity, because a posting doesn't always say. The range reflects each lane's real mix.
• We don't show a rate that misses the conditions in step 4.

Check it against your own loads

The best way to trust the rate is to compare it with what you already paid. Take the loads you covered in the last 30 days, run them through the Excel add-in, and compare what you paid to the range. If you usually land near Mid, quote from Mid. If you're well above High on a lane, it's worth posting it again to get more bids.

Important: Market Rates is a guide, not a guarantee of what a carrier will accept. For each part of the result, read How to read a market rate.